November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. EXPANDED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: - Intensifying Risks of a Highly Inflationary, Major U.S. Economic Downturn. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. (I) - BOTTOM LINE COVERAGE: A ninth, consecutive FOMC Meeting Interest Rate hike is expected Wednesday, yet the U.S. Economy already is in intensifying Recession. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. (10) April 14th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Fed, ShadowStats) [See the Opening Comments on the April 24th annual benchmark revisions to Retail Sales, which continue to show flat to negative annual contractions and quarterly contractions, net of inflation.] Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). He received an A.B. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. Mind the Aftershocks: Post-Tantrum Market Calm Unnerves Traders . Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. Accordingly, comparative year-to-year change in the various March 2021 to March 2022 Money Supply measures against the heavily spiked year-ago activity tended to be depressed, against what otherwise would be the change versus the February 2020 Pre-Recession or Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), effectively the Base Circumstance, before the Pandemic emergency liquidity surge. Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit Separately, circumstances are exacerbated directly, at present, by spiking, weekly gasoline prices, as seen through the week of April 17th. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. That said, in practice, such should be a major economic consideration for the FOMC and the Administration, going forward, as they hike Interest Rates, reduce their Balance Sheet and look to break the Budget Deficit Federal Debt Ceiling. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and its aftermath in still-unfolding, extraordinary political circumstances. "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . Shadow TUAS air vehicle The air vehicle system can be transported by two military wheeled vehicles and can be operated round-the-clock from unprepared sites by the 22-soldier crew. Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Here are the results. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. 1461] -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Inflation. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 Against Pre-Pandemic levels, Currency moved from a gain of 27.9% in February to 38.7% in March 2023, with parallel increases from 83.4% to 96.6% for Reserves, and from 54.11% to 61.3% in aggregate Monetary Base. Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil, Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. P E N D I N G .. P O S T I N G S Monday, May 1st, the Census Bureau releases March 2023 Construction Spending (10:00 a.m.

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